GAMEDAY INVESTMENT e-LERTS

Expert Sports Picks, Sports Handicapping Systems, Free Sports Picks & Tips

Exclusive PRO INFO SPORTS handicapping services available for purchase include our expert sports picks - NFL & NCAA Football, NBA & NCAA Basketball, and MLB  GAMEDAY INVESTMENT e-LERTS .

E-LERTS detail our highest-rated Money Plays (STAR SELECTIONS) and Opinion Selections with in-depth information, analysis and advice.

PRO INFO SPORTS features up to 10 Money Plays per investment "session", ranging from 1-7 STARS. Some days we may even have more than one session, such as a Saturday with early, afternoon, and late college football and basketball games. On days with a very limited schedule, we try to at least offer an Opinion Selection with the usual comprehensive sports handicapping information, analysis, and advice if no investment opportunities are rated high enough to be a STAR SELECTION.

For complete information on our proven strategies, read more about PRO INFO SPORTS Handicapping Sports and Money Management.  

GAMEDAY INVESTMENT e-LERT examples below include:

• NFL Football e-LERT
• NCAA Football e-LERT
• NBA Basketball e-LERT
• NCAA Basketball e-LERT
• MLB Baseball e-LERT

 NFL GAMEDAY INVESTMENT e-LERT 

Sunday, February 3, 2008

SUPERBOWL XLII @ UNIVERSITY OF PHOENIX STADIUM, GLENDALE, AZ

6:20 PM ET/3:20 PM PT

6 STAR SELECTION

NY GIANTS +12½ over NEW ENGLAND

The Patriots are 1 game away from the first 19-0 season in NFL history, with the Giants being the final hurdle in Super Bowl XLII on Sunday. The teams met just five weeks ago in the final game of the regular season where New York almost spoiled New England’s plans for a perfect season. The Giants had a double-digit second-half lead before falling, 38-35, but easily covering the double-digit pointspread.

The Patriots have a chance to make their mark in history with a victory here. After winning Super Bowls following the 2001, 2003, and 2004 season, they can become just the second team in NFL history to win four titles in a seven-year span. The Steelers and 49ers are currently the only franchises to win four Super Bowl titles in a single decade, another exclusive club New England could join with a victory.

While the game is viewed by some as being the final and inevitable step toward New England's coronation, a red-hot Giants team figures to have something to say about the matter. New York is in the Super Bowl for the first time in seven years thanks to consecutive playoff road wins over the Buccaneers, Cowboys, and Packers, and the Giants' 10 straight wins away from home this season are an NFL record.

New York QB Eli Manning has undergone a playoff revelation marked by sound decision-making and a minimal number of mistakes. Manning has completed 62% of his throws and not committed a turnover in New York's three postseason games. Manning's outstanding run actually began with a strong outing against New England in Week 17, when he went 22-of-32 for 251 yards and tossed FOUR TD passes. Since an interception thrown by Manning late in that game, the Giants offense has gone 33 possessions and 194 plays without a turnover.

New York's receiving corps possesses a strong blend of size, experience and youth in the threesome of Plaxico Burress, Amani Toomer and Steve Smith. The 6-foot-5, 232-pound Burress can be a matchup nightmare for opposing defensive backs, as Green Bay's Al Harris recently found out first-hand. Burress manhandled the Pro Bowl corner with an 11-catch, 151-yard performance in the NFC Championship and also caught two scoring passes from Manning in the Giants' 38-35 loss to the Patriots in late December.

The Giants have had to get by without the services of four-time Pro Bowler TE Jeremy Shockey since he broke his fibula in a mid-December loss to Washington; however, rookie Kevin Boss has proven to be a useful fill-in at the position, as evidenced by a four-catch, 50-yard effort with a touchdown in the first meeting with New England.

The Giants "thunder-and-lightning" backfield of Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw has been quite effective, especially late in the season, and will likely be the focus of the Patriots defense.

New England has a talented defensive line, but ranked near the bottom of the league with 4.4 yards allowed per carry during the regular season. The Patriots also have a pair of highly-decorated linebackers in the middle of their four-man group, with former Pro Bowlers Tedy Bruschi and Junior Seau occupying those places.

Once regarded as an area of weakness and inexperience for the Patriots, the cornerback position is now well-equipped with Asante Samuel, Ellis Hobbs, and Randall Gay. The safety position is also an area of strength for New England, as starters Rodney Harrison, James Sanders, and top backup Eugene Wilson all bring a great deal of experience to the table.

It wasn’t defense that carried the Patriots this season though, it was Tom Brady and the offense. MVP Brady comes off one of the great statistical seasons in NFL history, but struggled in the AFC Championship Game with 3 interceptions and has a gimpy right ankle. Brady was hurt in the third quarter of New England’s win over the Chargers, but has had 2 weeks to heal up for Sunday’s game. Brady was 32-of-42 for 356 yards and two touchdowns against the Giants in Week 17 of the regular season.

WR Randy Moss had a monster regular season but has disappeared in the playoffs. Moss has touched the football just three times in the post-season, catching two balls for 32 yards and carrying once for 14 yards. Moss had six catches for 100 yards and a pair of TDs against the Giants in the regular season finale, so the Giants will certainly try to keep him quiet in the Super Bowl. Slot receiver Wes Welker has 16 catches for 110 yards and two touchdowns in the playoffs thus far, and logged 11 grabs for 122 yards versus the G-Men last time out. Donte' Stallworth and Jabar Gaffney also both had their moments during the regular season. Tight end Benjamin Watson remains a trusted red-zone target for Brady.

Running back Laurence Maroney has generated a major impact for the Patriots during the playoffs after taking a back seat to Brady and the passing game for much of the regular season. In his last five games overall, Maroney has averaged 110 rushing yards and scored seven touchdowns, although he was held to 46 yards on 19 carries against the Giants in Week 17. The Patriots rushed for 4.4 yards per carry during the regular season, but New England backs amassed just 48 yards on 22 combined totes against New York.

New York recorded only one sack in that game, but they will certainly look to bring the pressure on Sunday. Ends Osi Umenyiora, Michael Strahan, and Justin Tuck have been wreaking havoc all year long, and the trio will be counted on to make Brady uncomfortable in the pocket for the Giants to have a chance to pull off the upset.

While the pass rushers get most of the defensive attention for New York, the Giants did finish eighth in the NFL against the run allowing less than 98 ypg. The solid play of interior linemen Fred Robbins and Barry Cofield had much to do with that lofty ranking, but perhaps no player is more valuable to the Giants on defense than middle linebacker Antonio Pierce, the team's top tackler and a vocal presence in the huddle.

No position on the Giants' defense has experienced as much flux as that of cornerback, as recent injuries to Sam Madison, Aaron Ross, and Kevin Dockery have really tested the team's depth. New York has been able to survive, however, because reserves Corey Webster and R.W. McQuarters have stepped up their play at a most crucial time. The pair have accounted for all five of the team's interceptions during the postseason, with Webster setting up Lawrence Tynes' game-winning field goal in the NFC Championship by picking off Brett Favre in overtime. Both Madison and Ross returned to action in the conference title game, while Dockery has a good chance of playing in the Super Bowl as well. This is great news considering the weapons New York will be facing in the game.

In the special teams department, the teams are pretty even. Giants kicker Lawrence Tynes’ 47-yard overtime field goal propelled New York to victory over Green Bay in the NFC Championship, but he also misfired on a pair of three-point tries. Tynes was 23-of-27 on field goals during the regular season, with all four of those misses from inside 40 yards. Punter Jeff Feagles no longer boasts a powerful leg -- his 40.4 yard average was the second-lowest in the league -- but he's still quite adept at pinning in the opposition with his kicks.

McQuarters averaged a mediocre 7.6 yards per punt return during the regular season, but did come up with a key 25-yard runback in New York's upset victory at Dallas in the Divisional round. The Patriots are fully aware of the capabilities of New York kickoff returner Domenik Hixon, as the young backup wideout had a 74-yard kick return touchdown when the two teams met in the regular-season finale. Hixon, claimed off waivers from Denver in October, has also performed well on returns this postseason, averaging 25.1 yards on 10 attempts. New York has been very strong on punt coverage this year, having limited the opposition to just 6.2 yards per return prior to the playoffs, good for 5th best in the NFL.

The Pats' Stephen Gostkowski has attempted just two field goals in the 2007 postseason to date, missing on a 35-yarder and making one from the same distance in the Divisional Playoff win over Jacksonville. He was 21-of-24 during the regular season, including 3-of-5 from 40 yards-plus, and hit a season-high-tying 45-yarder during a 3-for-3 night against the Giants in Week 17. Gostkowski ranked among NFL leaders with 15 touchbacks during the regular season, but has just two in his last nine games. Punter Chris Hanson was the least-used regular punter in the NFL with just 44 kicks, and has booted the ball only five times in the playoffs.

New England is likely to use either Welker or Faulk on punt returns, as both have appeared at the spot during the 2007 postseason. Welker was the Pats' primary return man during the regular season, averaging 10 yards per attempt with his high a 35-yarder against Indianapolis in November. The Patriots have used both Maroney and Hobbs on kickoff returns during the postseason, and former second-round draft pick Chad Jackson was also utilized in that capacity against the Jaguars in the Divisional round. Hobbs was the club's usual return choice during the regular season, averaging more than 26 yards per return and scoring on a 108-yard play against the Jets back in Week 1.

Due to the proficiency of their offense, the Patriots have a great deal of experience covering kickoffs, and not as much on punts. New England allowed a modest 22.1 yards per kickoff return during the regular season, and the only touchdown surrendered by that coverage group was Hixon's return in Week 17.

The Patriots have the edge in most of the personnel categories, but it's not a decisive edge on many counts. The Giants proved in December that they have the ability to make this a game, and with the way they are peaking, there’s no reason to believe they won’t make this game very competitive once again. New York is 6-0 ATS since Week 10 when playing with revenge and not favored by a TD or more, while the Patriots are on an 0-5 spread run vs. opponents playing with revenge.

In fact, the Giants are on quite a spread run themselves, going 8-0 ATS when not favored by more than 4 points. New England is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games. New York is also 9-0 ATS away from their home stadium when not favored by more than 9 points, to go along with their 10 straight SU victories on the road.

We also have numerous PRO INFO SPORTS Playoff and Super Bowl POWER SYSTEMS pointing to at least a Giants cover here. For starters, it turns out that after a close Playoff victory, teams have been battle-tested and very competitive in their next Playoff game. Specifically...(EXCLUSIVE POWER SYSTEMS INFO FOR PRO INFO SPORTS CLIENTS ONLY)...are a strong 15-0 ATS since 1998, beating the spread by nearly 10 ppg on average. This POWER SYSTEM is already 2-0 in this year’s playoffs, active for both of our STAR SELECTION WINNERS in the AFC and NFC Conference Championship Games two weekends ago.

After making it to the Super Bowl with an underdog victory, teams have continued to play very well in recent seasons. Specifically, Super Bowl teams off a Conference Championship underdog SU win in their last game are 5-0 ATS since 2000 vs. opponents not favored off a Conference Championship underdog SU win in their last game, blasting the spread by nearly 17 ppg on average.

Another POWER SYSTEM shows a similar result for teams off a road win in their Conference Championship Game. It states: ...(EXCLUSIVE POWER SYSTEMS INFO FOR PRO INFO SPORTS CLIENTS ONLY)... Going back to 1990, these teams are 7-0-1 ATS, crushing the spread by more than 2 TDs per game on average.

The Giants defense continues to be under-rated, as most fans have focused on Eli Manning’s solid play in the post-season, but defense wins championships as shown by this POWER SYSTEM that advises: ...(EXCLUSIVE POWER SYSTEMS INFO FOR PRO INFO SPORTS CLIENTS ONLY)... Since 1989, these teams are 17-0-3 ATS, beating the spread by 2 TDs per game. Those numbers include New York’s qualify SU & ATS win at Green Bay for the NFC title.

If we isolate this exact same situation to Super Bowls, we find that it has gone without a loss all the way to back to 1983. Since then, qualifying Super Bowl teams are 16-0-2 ATS, destroying the spread by more than 17 ppg on average! Sixteen of the 18 teams also won the game outright by a similar margin.

Finally, we come to a Super Bowl POWER SYSTEM that we developed several seasons ago and has brought us a winner each time. It’s a very simple and logical trend, as the team that has done better spread-wise in the postseason has continued to cover the number. Specifically...(EXCLUSIVE POWER SYSTEMS INFO FOR PRO INFO SPORTS CLIENTS ONLY)...

In the 2 Super Bowls before that, this POWER SYSTEM indicated a play AGAINST New England, and was right both times. The Patriots were TD favorites against the Panthers and Eagles, and won by just a FG each time. In fact, New England has won all 3 of their Super Bowls by 3 points. They are a tremendous football team and have been for several seasons now, but they simply do not blow out their opponents in the Super Bowl, even when playing the weaker NFC.

Not even a bye week has been a big boost for New England in the playoffs. Under Belichik, the Pats are 0-4 ATS when favored in the playoffs off a week of rest.

New England started the season by steamrolling everything in their path, but it’s been many weeks now since they dominated a game, yet here they are favored by about a dozen points. Teams that are favored despite continually failing to cover the spread in victories, tend to continue disappointing their backers. Likewise, teams that continually win and/or cover as an underdog, tend to continue doing so as an underdog. Here, it’s quite likely that both trends will continue.

A close game is one thing, but could the “unthinkable” happen? Could the Patriots actually lose this game after going 18-0 this season to get here? We think it’s a strong possibility. New England was underwhelming in their 2 home playoff wins, barely able to put away a Chargers team with its 3 best offensive players severely hobbled. Speaking of hobbled, based upon what we’ve seen and heard in Arizona, it appears that Brady’s ankle is worse than he or the team is letting on. A sitting duck in the pocket will only make it a little bit easier for the Giants defensive line and blitzers to hit their mark. Meanwhile, New York is peaking right now and they will come in full of confidence. Knowing how close they came to beating New England 5 weeks ago and how they’ve continued to play since then, they can’t wait to take the field against the Patriots.

We expect another very close game. The Patriots made several miracle escapes this season to keep their perfect record alive and it may take another miracle to pull this one out. The Giants should give them everything they can handle and we won’t be surprised to see the G-men pull off the shocking upset, perhaps in overtime.

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: NEW YORK GIANTS 26 NEW ENGLAND 23 (OT)

ACTUAL FINAL SCORE: NEW YORK GIANTS 17 NEW ENGLAND 14

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 NCAA Football GAMEDAY INVESTMENT e-LERT 

Thursday, January 3, 2008
8 p.m. EST

Orange Bowl (Miami, FL)

3 STAR SELECTION

Kansas +4 over Virginia Tech

A couple of Top 10 teams clash in the Sunshine State on Thursday, as the Jayhawks take on the Hokies in the Orange Bowl. Kansas was perhaps the biggest surprise in college football this season, as they won a school-record 11 games against just one defeat. Virginia Tech posted its own 11-win campaign, while winning the ACC.

Kansas lit up the scoreboard on offense this season, finishing second in the nation in scoring at 44 ppg. The team's best offensive asset is its balance, churning out nearly 500 yards of total offense, with nearly 200 yards coming on the ground and nearly 300 coming through the air. Sophomore QB Todd Reesing was phenomenal in running the spread offense, completing over 62 percent of his passes, for over 3,200 yards, with 32 TDs and just six interceptions.

Perhaps the Jayhawks defense is the most overlooked part of the team. The team did finish the regular season ranked 4th nationally in scoring defense, allowing just 16 ppg. Just as the offense is balanced, the defense is good against the run and the pass.

Virginia Tech cannot match Kansas' offensive fireworks, but few teams in the country can. The Hokies didn't steamroll anyone this season, averaging 29 ppg, on just 332 yards of total offense. The rushing attack is good for about 135 yards per game, while the passing attack goes for nearly 200 ypg. Frank Beamer has used 2 QBs this year, with junior Sean Glennon and freshman Tyrod Taylor. Glennon is the more polished passer, while Taylor is the better all-around threat, ranking second on the team in rushing. The ground game should be better, but talented RB Branden Ore has had a mildly disappointing season and has struggled at times, and has been suspended for the 1st quarter by Beamer.

Defensive tenacity is once again the name of the game in Blacksburg. Virginia Tech comes into this bowl game ranked among the nation's best in numerous statistical categories on defense. The team is ranked second in scoring defense, allowing a bit less than 16 ppg.

There hasn’t been much competition in the BCS games this season, but we look for this one to be very close. The Hokies have the edge in experience in big games like these; however, they have not been very successful in these types of game. In what used to be the Big 8 champion's reward, the Orange Bowl is now supposed to be the ACC's showcase bowl game but the conference hasn't won the Orange Bowl since the league champion was automatically sent to Miami. The last ACC team to win here was Florida State in the 1996 win over Notre Dame with the league going 0-for-5 since.

Additionally, we note that Va Tech is 0-4 SU in Bowl games when coming in off a win streak of at least 5 games, as they are this year. That’s actually not too surprising to us, as we generally look to play AGAINST a streak in a Bowl game. A classic trap gamblers fall into is finding teams that ended the regular season with winning or losing streaks and betting those streaks to continue. Nothing can break a team’s momentum more easily than several weeks off. Conversely, nothing is more valuable to a struggling team than to have an extended time to regroup.

Kansas is 3-1 SU & ATS in recent Bowl games, losing only as a 12-point underdog to Philip Rivers and North Carolina State a few years ago. They aren’t getting much respect here, being made the underdog, despite being statistically superior. This provides us the opportunity to play AGAINST a “public” Bowl team like Virginia Tech that is over-valued as revealed by our Power Ratings.

Our only question is whether the Jayhawks would suffer a letdown after losing their last game, knocking them from the ranks of the unbeaten and denying them a chance to play in the BCS Title game. For all reports, they appear to have no hangover from that and they are excited to be playing in the Orange Bowl.

Finally, a PRO INFO SPORTS NCAA Football Bowl POWER SYSTEM shows that despite not playing in a Conference Championship Game, Bowl teams have done very well at the right price against foes off a Conference Championship Game victory. It states: ...(CLASSIFIED POWER SYSTEMS INFORMATION FOR PRO INFO SPORTS CLIENTS ONLY)... Since 2003, these teams are a rock solid 9-1 SU & 10-0 ATS, beating the spread by an average of more than 2 TDs per game!

We do expect the Tech defense to play well and keep the Kansas offense under control; however, the under-rated Jayhawks defense should be the difference in this game, keeping a pedestrian Hokies offense off the field.

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: KANSAS 24 VIRGINIA TECH 21

ACTUAL FINAL SCORE: KANSAS 24 VIRGINIA TECH 21

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 NBA GAMEDAY INVESTMENT e-LERT 

Saturday April 22, 2006

2 STAR SELECTION (2.5% of Bankroll)

CLEVELAND -5 over Washington

"King" James gets his first crack at showing what he can do in a playoff series, as LeBron's Cavaliers host the Wizards to tip off the NBA's 2006 postseason. Cleveland enters as the #4 seed in the Eastern Conference, while Washington will be giving an encore performance as the #5 seed. Last year, the Wiz dropped 2 at #4 Chicago, before recovering to win 4 straight and advance to second round, where they were burned by the Heat.

LeBron James is being compared to Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant and other greats of the game, and we look for him to continue his climb by making a statement in the playoffs. In Washington's Caron Butler, he has a worthy adversary, as Butler won't back down from anyone. On the other side, Gilbert Arenas is a immense talent who will be expected to produce against former teammate Larry Hughes, who probably knows his moves better than anyone.

Many will examine how these teams faired against each other during the regular season and note that Washington took the last 3 games and jump on the road dogs. Looking at the regular season results for a playoff series does provide interesting analysis that can give provide insight into little details. For example, if Tim Duncan or Shaquille O'Neal average 44 ppg in four regular season contests against Seattle or New York, that could be explained by the lack of a quality defensive center, which may suggest those centers could have big games in the postseason; however, we don’t get carried away with regular season meetings. The playoffs are a "whole new ball game." Coaches often rest players at certain points during the season, such as a back-to-back spot, or sometimes players miss time with injuries, which is why we don't overemphasize the Wizards' winning three of four meetings with Cleveland in the regular season. The Cavaliers were missing Larry Hughes in two of the losses and incentive in the third. In fact, we note that Washington is 0-6 ATS when facing a team they've beaten 3 straight times, while the Cavaliers are 3-0 ATS in the reverse role.

The Wizards dropped both road games SU & ATS in Chicago last year and dropped the series opener at Miami SU & ATS after advancing last year, so they have a tendency to start off slow. That will be trouble against a Cleveland team that will be looking to jump out to an early lead and get the fans at Quicken Loans Arena fired up. Cleveland has won 11 straight games at home, and was 31-10 there during the regular season. In their last 12 home games as a favorite of less than 6 points/pick 'em/underdog of 2 points or less, the Cavs are a sparkling 10-2 ATS, including 7-0 ATS vs. the Eastern Conference.

Expect a letdown from the Wiz, as they peaked to get in the playoffs and avoid the bottom 3 seeds. Meanwhile, Cleveland coasted a bit after clinching a playoff spot and gave LeBron some rest down the stretch. He'll be fully healthy on Saturday and with Larry Hughes back in the line-up, we look for King James and the Cavaliers to score a double-digit win over the flat Wizards.

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: CLEVELAND 105 WASHINGTON 93

ACTUAL FINAL SCORE: CLEVELAND 97 WASHINGTON 86

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 NCAA Basketball GAMEDAY INVESTMENT e-LERT 

 College National Championship Game

Sport/Type: CBB / Total

Game: Kansas Jayhawks vs. Memphis Tigers

Time: 9:15 PM EST (CBS)

Line: Kansas / Memphis 146.5

Rating: SIX-Star (4.50% of Bankroll)

Selection: UNDER 146.5

Analysis: This game from appearances only would have you believe it will fly over the posted total. With Memphis being such a prolific scoring team and Kansas also able to put points on the board would lead you to play the over.

One should never base a selection on appearances or one key factor in any sport. This is the Championship Game and both teams will likely be very cautious with the ball and their offensive schemes to begin the game. This will set the pace and tempo right from the start and should carry through for the balance of the contest.

Kansas did an outstanding job of holding a North Carolina team that had averaged 91.6 points per game the previous five contests before facing the Jayhawks and 89.2 points per game on the season to only 66 points in their Final Four match up.

The pundits gave little credit to the Memphis defense prior to their game with UCLA in the Final Four, it was always about how good the Bruins defense was and how they would shut down the Tigers. Well the tables surely got turned because Memphis held the Bruins to 63 points and 37.5% shooting after they had put up 88 and 76 in their two previous games.

This bureau believes we will see a defensive struggle in the game tonight with both teams playing strong on the defensive end of the floor. Our Player Performance Indicator shows both teams' performance numbers significantly lower than their season to date and even their tournament numbers to this point. When the Player Performance Indicator's numbers fall to this level against a total between 144.5 to 147.5 it signals a play on the Under.

Technical Support: Memphis has gone Under 7-1 their last 8 against Big 12 opponents, 18-8 UNDER versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons, 35-23 UNDER after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons, 29-15 UNDER after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons, 22-11 UNDER after 3 straight wins by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons, 28-15 UNDER after a win by 15 points or more over the last 2 seasons, 18-7 UNDER after 2 straight wins by 15 points or more over the last 2 seasons, 24-10 UNDER after scoring 75 points or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. Kansas is 7-0 Under in Tournament action including 5-0 Under this season, 9-2 Under at neutral sites, 22-8 Under playing non-conference opponents, 20-10-2 Under as underdogs, 6-1 Under as a neutral site underdog, 10-2 UNDER in road games when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days over the last 2 seasons, 14-5 UNDER in road games after 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons, 40-23 UNDER when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 80%) since 1997, 29-15 UNDER in road games vs. top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 12+ points/game since 1997. One final technical note the Jayhawks held North Carolina to 66 points and we know that Memphis is a perfect 14-0 Under when they score 67 to 74 points over the last two seasons.

Situational Support: Play Under CBB teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points with a team who averages 69-73% from the free throw line against a team that averages <=61% from the free throw line, 77-43 Under since 1997.

SELECTION: 6* KANSAS JAYHAWKS/MEMPHIS TIGERS UNDER 146.5

ACTUAL FINAL SCORE: KANSAS 75 MEMPHIS 68 (OT)

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 MLB GAMEDAY INVESTMENT e-LERT 

SUNDAY JULY 20, 2008

Game: Boston Red Sox (Wakefield) vs. LA Angels (Garland) 6:00 EST

Prediction: LOS ANGELES ANGELS -116 (Listed Pitchers)

Grade: THREE-Star (graded 1 to 6 units)

Analysis: The Halo's play host to the Red Sox for the final game of their weekend series on Sunday night's ESPN MLB Game of the Week. The Angels will be looking to get out their brooms and sweep this weekend series against the Red Sox.

The Red Sox will try to avoid their fifth straight road loss and their fifth straight defeat against the major league-leading Angels.

Boston (57-42) has the best home record in the majors, but its 21-31 mark away from Fenway Park is the league's worst among clubs with overall winning records.

After Saturday's 4-2 loss to the Angels, the Red Sox have now dropped nine of their last 11 on the road, scoring only 10 total runs during their current four-game road skid. They stranded 12 runners Saturday, one day after managing only five hits in an 11-3 loss.

Los Angeles (59-38) also took the last two games of a three-game set in Boston from April 22-24, turning the tables on the team that eliminated the Angels with a three-game sweep in last year's AL division series. A victory Sunday would clinch their first season-series win over the Red Sox since 2001.

With a four-game winning streak overall, the Angels have opened up an eight-game lead over Oakland atop the AL West the largest in any division in baseball. They've allowed just nine runs in their last four games after allowing that many in a 9-2 loss to Oakland July 11.

The Angels will send Jon Garland to the bump with his 8-6 record and 4.20 ERA. The Angels, who have won five of their last six games, are 39-16 at home against winning teams, 6-1 in their last seven home outings and 5-1 with Garland going against an A.L. East opponent.

Boston will send right-hander Tim Wakefield to the rubber with his 6-6 record and 3.60 ERA. Boston is 0-8 behind the knuckleballer on the road against winning teams, 1-10 overall with Wakefield facing winning teams and 1-6 in his last seven road starts. The Red Sox are also 2-9 in their last 11 road games including losing their last four and 3-10 against the A.L. West.

Wakefield has had a number of no-decisions on the road this year, going 1-4 with a 4.04 ERA in 11 starts, and he's 9-11 with a 4.79 ERA in 27 career appearances against the Los Angeles Angels.

Data base research has solidified our position on the Angels in tonight's contest. PLAY AGAINST any MLB team on the road after a loss in which they allowed 1 or fewer walks, 117-70 SU (+3540). PLAY AGAINST any MLB team on the road versus a team that has won at least their last three games and it is not the first game of a series, 75-33 SU (+3180). PLAY AGAINST any MLB team on the road and it is the last game of a three game series when they lost the first two, 62-27 SU (+3020). PLAY AGAINST any MLB team as a dog after a loss in which they allowed 1 or fewer walks, 50-17 SU (+2715). The Red Sox are 12-32 SU on the road versus a team that has won at least their last two games for a net profit of $2120 when playing against. PLAY ON any MLB team after a win in which they were shut out in the first 6 innings and it is not the first game of a series, 119-87 SU (+2605). The Angels are 35-9 SU (+2385) at home when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start. The Angels are 29-8 SU (+1795) as a home favorite when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start.

Our Pitcher Power Index Ratings show Jon Garland only allowing the Red Sox to plate 3.1 runs while Boston's starter Wakefield gets touched for 5.4 runs in tonight's contest. Our Team Power Index Ratings project a Halo's win with a final score of 5 to 1 in Sunday's MLB ESPN Game of the Week.

GRADED PREDICTION: 3* LOS ANGELES ANGELS -116

ACTUAL FINAL SCORE: LA ANGELS 5 BOSTON 3

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